Testing Your Sport Betting Strategy

Published: 31-03-22
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    Many active gamblers, both amateur and especially professional ones spend a lot of time and sometimes money in search of a profitable sport betting strategy. A profitable strategy is a strategy that makes a profit regularly. In this article, you will not find advice on how to choose a strategy. But the criteria mentioned here can be useful not only for sport betting but also for online casinos

    It is worth mentioning that without careful analysis and a mindful approach to managing your own money, you will never get any profit from any strategy. There is one more difficulty which some people face, and it does not matter if they choose gambling to relax or make money this way. I am talking about a situation when some method, proved to be quite profitable at some point, suddenly becomes ‘lame’, so stakes don’t ‘hit the jackpot’ anymore.

    Although very often, this difficulty just shows that the testing period was too short. So, for example, in a specific case, a player can get good results at a short distance, but in the long run, they get none. Keep in mind that if your bets are successful for a while, it does not guarantee that the success will last long. 

    Thus, we came to the idea that testing is key. So, let’s discuss how to understand if one or another strategy brings in regular profit from gambling and sports betting.

    What criteria should you pay attention to first?

    what-criteria-should-you-pay-attention-to-first

    If you happen to be a player who tends to predict as well as analyse and create strategies, then it is a must to have some criteria relying on which you can estimate how any approach works.

    Key points: bets sum, odds, total.

    Do investments pay?

    Actually, you can estimate it only after at least a hundred bets. Experienced oldies even say that no less than a thousand bets should be made before your data becomes credible. Well, this opinion really pays itself off because the more you try, the more reliable the result is.

    You can calculate if your investments pay in the following way: the whole net profit you get during your ‘betting career’ should be divided by the number of bets, and the result should be multiplied by 100%. A sport betting strategy is considered successful if its result is not less than 5%. It means that if the sum of the bet is, for example, 10 thousand, you will get 500 coins back as a net profit which is quite good.

    Win rate

    How many bets paid off? It is easy to find out: just divide the total number of bets by the number of successful ones. So, if you get 60 bets that succeed every hundred bets, then your win rate is 60%. But here go the odds, and you must take them into account. Why? Because if the odds are less than 1,1, then you will be out of pocket even if your win rate is 75%. The situation is opposite when the odds are 3,5, for example. In such a case, you will get much ‘bread’ even if your win rate is 30-40%.

    Finding a breakeven point

    This point indicates the win rate, which is necessary to make your losses and profits equal at a distance. You can find it by dividing one by average odds and then multiplying the result by 100%. The example: the odds are 1,8. So, it should be divided by one and then the result multiplied by 100%. You get 55,55%. So with a win rate like this, one can stop losing money, but earning it will also be impossible.

    Choosing optimal odds

    Plain and simple. Let’s say that if you follow your sport betting strategy, your average winning odds are 1.8. But common ones are 2.1 – 2.2. You can prefer the exceptionally beneficial odds to the high ones. Sometimes it’s not a matter of ‘can’ but ‘must’.

    Drawdown

    In sport betting, a drawdown is a difference between your bankroll’s top point and its minimum as a part of a test. To determine your drawdown is to obtain data about the worst case possible, which is a situation when you follow your strategy and your deposit reduces dramatically as a result. You can find it, for example, if you look into a case when the win rate is the lowest.

    Yield

    Knowing your yield, you can find the actual level of ‘exhaust’ that your money produces. Calculate it in the following way: a profit or loss divided by the sum of all bets and then multiply the result by 100%.

    Example: you’ve made 10 thousand as a profit. Divide it by the sum of all bets you’ve made and multiply by 100%. Let the total sum of bets be 55 thousand. In this case, you get 18,18%. It is commonly believed that a sport betting strategy is not profitable if only about 400-500 bets have happened so far and the yield is less than 3-4%.

    Loss streak

    This is a series of bets which did not pay off. Observing such a situation can help foresee its probable future repetition. The advantage for you – is you get some time to prepare. At least to psych up.

    Testing your sport betting strategy

    testing-your-sport-betting-strategy

    Easy-peasy. Testing here means that you note all bets and then calculate the indexes, which shows if a strategy is profitable or not. 

    You can take into account: 

    • future bets
    • the bets already made

    Or you can use a mixed approach. 

    The first case is clear: you can only forecast some data of a chosen line of events and gather the information concerning possibly profitable and unprofitable bets. You must make a record of all the results. 

    The second case is pretty similar to the first one, but you work with some past data here. The mixed approach implies relying on both types of data. 

    The point of any testing is to understand if a certain sport betting strategy makes real money or not. Example: analyse some finished bets data, work with the figures of ‘profit/loss’, ‘yield’ etc. Find the fluctuation range during the entire history of a ‘game’ and make conclusions. 

    How do I understand that my method needs improving?

    Easily. Here are the signs:

    • payback of your investments is less than 5%
    • yield is less than 3-4%
    • win rate is quite low
    • the maximum drawdown is too hard a blow for your bank
    • loss steaks happen often and are pretty long

    But don’t throw away your sport betting strategy without thinking. You can always improve and change it. 

    Tip: When you are doing a test, record all the results carefully. Check and recheck all your calculations and data. All figures must be correct. Trialling one or anothersport betting strategy, remember to keep your head – that is key! No less than 400-500 bets can provide you with more or less reliable results. The longer the distance is, the more accurate the calculations are. 

    I wish you plenty of successful bets and as deep pockets as possible!  

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    Marcis Licis marcislicis

    Marcis has joined the Casinobaltics team to educate our visitors and prospective gamblers about online casinos. A real casino gaming expert.

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