The main characteristics of value bets

Published: 02-06-22
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    Players who stick to their chosen strategy over a long period of time have a much better chance of success. Of course, any tactic suggested is just a template. In order to start making a regular profit, you need to adjust the proposed variant to your own needs: sort out your bankroll, choose a suitable sport and the optimal amount of initial bet.

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the preparatory stage: without a solid foundation, betting is unlikely to become a separate source of income. In addition, sports betting requires extreme concentration and composure: the desire to win back at all costs leads directly to bankruptcy.

    Lovers of excitement and easy money rarely use strategy for betting. Such a hobby is used as a gambling pastime and does not imply permanent earnings. The situation changes when the professionals take over: you can’t get very far on luck alone. In most cases, the tactics of successful betting are designed for long-term cooperation with the bookmaker. So, it will not be possible to instantly assess the patency of bets and the amount of net profit.

    What does “bet value” mean?

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    Any bookmaker is interested in getting the maximum profit and is an experienced and dangerous opponent even for the most knowledgeable bettor. Analysts, on whose work the odds set for events depend, quite rarely make mistakes and give players a chance to place a profitable bet.

    However, such a scenario is quite possible; all that remains is to learn how to find a valued situation in the betting line. A “valuable” bet is one in which the true probability of the chosen outcome is higher than that suggested by the bookmaker’s office. This means that the odds of the bet on offer will not match the real odds. When such a bet goes through, it not only brings the successful player a profit, but also completely covers the bookmaker’s margin.

    Any player who takes betting seriously should be able to predict the probability of the outcome of a sporting event with as little error as possible. A simple formula can be used to calculate the true value of a proposed bet:

    V*C>100, where V is the probability of the outcome in %, C is the odds given.

    If the product of these values ​​is greater than 100, the bet can be considered a value bet.

    In order to assess the probability of a particular outcome, it is important to keep up to date with current events. Advice for beginners in sports betting always includes the requirement to study and analyze news about the performance of the teams or individual athletes concerned. Only with up-to-date information can one correctly calculate the real probability of the outcome and find a suitable event.

    Where to look for value situations?

    where-to-look-for-value-situations

     

    Any movement of the coefficients deserves attention: a change in the numbers on the scoreboard can be the first sign of valuation. The further tactics of the player depend on the scale of the sporting event, the experience of the bettor and the greed of the bookmaker.

    There are 3 categories of sporting events that bookmakers can bet on:

    1. Events of global importance: World Cup, Olympic Games, Grand Slam tournament;
    2. Continental competitions: national leagues, KHL;
    3. National championships;
    4. Amateur sports: youth championships, pro-leagues.

    Each category has its own betting features. For example, the world and continental championships are hugely popular: experienced analysts work on the odds for each bet.

    Bookmakers are trying to protect themselves and often have reliable sources of insider information.  It can be very difficult to find a value here, but the winnings when passing a bet are much higher.  But large events rarely become objects for contractual games.

    In the case of national championships, bookmakers usually do not spend too much time and effort: the payline is poor, the playing conditions are less favorable, and the margin is much higher. A limited number of specialists work on the coefficients, and bet mainly by players from the same region. A great option for practice in finding value bets.

    Separately, there is a situation with dropping odds. Often a situation with an obvious outcome of the meeting attracts a huge number of sports betting fans. Due to the high demand for the same option, bookmakers artificially lower the odds in order to increase interest in the opposite outcome.

    This usually happens when the favorite and outsider are already known before the start of the competition. Also, the dropping odds can be seen when a player or team of an average level meets a strong opponent, who is pursued by a losing streak. Another option is a well-played match or round the day before, which implies a good game in the near future.

    It makes sense for newcomers to choose the easiest betting options for their debut. However, experienced players remember that the most expected bets just don’t go through, representing an excellent prospect for earning money for more experienced bettors.

    It also happens that bookmakers pre-set low odds, expecting high demand and, as a result, inevitable dropping odds. This usually happens in bets on the victory of the nominal leader.

    It turns out that the odds for a win, a draw and a positive handicap of a weaker opponent initially have high rates. This bias is used by professional bettors. Of course, before making a deposit, you need to weigh the pros and cons in order to maximize your own chances of success.

    Little-known tournaments are not given a lot of time and effort by world-class bookmakers, hence the rather serious errors in assessing the opponents’ capabilities. Betting on national championships is the best option for players who live in the surrounding area and have a personal interest in the performance of their country’s team.

    It is worth noting an important disadvantage of such competitions: the bookmaker’s high margins. Since such performances generate interest from a small number of bettors, the betting office needs to cover the costs. This comes at the expense of the players themselves in the form of unreasonably high commissions.

    Special bets also have excellent odds for finding value situations. It is the choice of the most experienced players who represent the most diverse options.

    For football, the most promising betting areas are the number of yellow and red cards, the number of resulting kicks towards goal, and betting on minor infringements in live betting.

    In tennis, bettors prefer to count the aces of one or both sides at once. Hockey is the most preferred sport for such bets. The player can place a value bet on the players’ individual statistics, the numerical advantage of one of the teams and the exact number of minor penalties.

     

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    Marcis Licis marcislicis

    Marcis has joined the Casinobaltics team to educate our visitors and prospective gamblers about online casinos. A real casino gaming expert.

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