The odds of a fighter winning may be low, but there is always an option to increase the winnings.
The UFC is rapidly gaining popularity, with boxing being left behind. In most fights there is a clear favourite, on whom bookmakers offer small odds. But martial arts are great because they always offer the opportunity to increase potential winnings. One of the main ways is to guess an athlete’s method of winning. That’s what we’re going to talk about today.
What you need to know about betting on the UFC
The UFC is in the top five most popular sports for betting – just behind football, hockey and tennis. Boxing is left far behind.
The principle is the same as in any other sport: the more interesting the event, the more options the bookmaker will offer. For the main fights the betting line-up is very big, you can bet on the statistical components. But if there is no interest in the fight, bookmakers will limit itself to the outcome and the total of the rounds.
Before placing a bet, check the organization that hosts the fight. UFC, Bellator, One and ACA have different rules. Otherwise, you can analyze the upcoming event in detail, but remain in the red due to ignorance of the promotion regulations.
For example, in March 2021, Petr Yan was disqualified in a title fight with Aljamain Sterling for a knee strike and lost his title, although he had a noticeable advantage.
A month later, Adriano Moraes defeated Demetrius Johnson in another title shot with the same punch. But Ian fought in the UFC, where such elements are prohibited. And Moraesh is in ONE where it’s allowed.
How to make UFC predictions
Knowing the rules of a particular promotion will protect you from unpleasant surprises. But to increase the chances of profit, you need to take into account many factors:
- Information from training camps. When preparing, an athlete can get injured, which will not be critical, but will affect the condition and tactics of combat;
- Weight loss problems. If a fighter has difficulty staying on his feet during the weigh-in procedure, he will most likely have difficulties with endurance in the later rounds. A change of coach or personal problems must also be taken into account;
- Fighter relationships. For the sake of promotion of the event, athletes often use trash talk and try to poke each other. However, sincere enmity is always evident. Such fights are often uncompromising;
- Fighter styles. Each athlete has a base, although top athletes try to learn new elements and develop an arsenal. Of course, in the stalls, the basic wrestler will most often have an advantage, and in the stand, the chances of the boxer are higher;
- Quote fluctuations. If the balance of power changes dramatically before the fight, then a large amount was bet on the victory of one of the athletes. Most likely, one of the BC’s clients received insider information on the condition of one of the fighters.
Methods for winning in the UFC and mixed martial arts
Betting on the winning method allows you to significantly increase your potential winnings. Most often they are used in battles with a clear favorite or underdog. Or in the case when one of the athletes has a preferred way to end the fight.
For example, athletes often win by knockout. Or, on the contrary, rarely finishes fights early, but consistently outclasses his rivals on points. The exact odds on one or the other depend on the style of the fighter and the level of the opponent, but the odds will always be noticeably higher than on a head-to-head win.
Early methods of victory include knockout, technical knockout, voluntary surrender. The outcome at the end of all rounds is a win or draw by referee’s decision. Usually a specific refereeing decision is added to this type of betting: split or unanimous decision.
If there is a big fight coming up, bookmakers are increasing the spread. You can find bets on a fighter’s victory in a single round, on the method of victory in a particular round. Odds will rise considerably. Let’s highlight the main variants of the fight’s end:
If there is a big fight ahead, bookmakers increase the lineup. You can find bets on the victory of a fighter in a particular round, on the method of victory in a particular round. The odds will increase significantly. Let’s highlight the main options for completing the fight:
- Knockout. The classic method in mixed martial arts: one of the opponents strikes the second such a blow, after which athlete is not ready to continue the fight;
- Technical knockout. This point is similar to the previous one. The key difference is that the technical knockout can be decided not only by the referee, but also by the corner of the fighter. For example the trainer, the doctor or the second. It is enough to throw the towel into the octagon. If the referee sees that the contestant is unable to defend himself against blows, he will stop the fight and score a technical knockout. This is done to preserve the health of the fighters;
- By a painful or choking hold. This technique is also called a submission. The fighter may lose consciousness or simply refuse to continue the fight if the opponent’s hold is successful;
- Surrender. Repeatedly patting the floor of the octagon or the opponent with the palm of the hand is an acknowledgement of defeat. In some cases, when it is not possible to do so with the hands, a verbal surrender is allowed;
- Disqualification. This happens rarely, only when there is a direct breach of the rules. For example, when elbowing from above or kicking a lying opponent. A fighter can also be disqualified after the fight, if he strikes his opponent unexpectedly after the fight. Sometimes one of the fighters tests positive for doping, he will be disqualified and the fight will be won by his opponent. Disqualifications by the promotion’s management for contractual infringements are also possible;
- Judges’ decision. If the fight goes the whole distance, the outcome is decided by the referees. The decision may be unanimous (all judges have decided the same outcome, no match of the score is required) or divided (the referees are divided).
Betting on a draw in the UFC
A separate case – draws. If the fight lasts the entire distance, the judges count the number of points. A fighter can get no more than 10 points per round. Then the final verdict is rendered. There are several types of draws:
- Unanimous draw: all judges make the same decision;
- Separate draw: one of the referees gives the victory to the first fighter, the second – to the other, and the third determines a draw;
- Draw by majority decision – a situation in which two judges give a draw. Then the vote of the third does not matter, because the majority voted for a draw.
Draws in official MMA fights are rare. Most athletes spend their careers without such an outcome. Usually, the judges after the fight are able to single out the fighter who looked preferable: he delivered more significant blows, more often controlled the opponent on the ground. The degree of activity of the athlete also matters.
Quite often, preference is given to a more famous fighter or current champion. In the entire history of the UFC, only four chapters of the fight turned into a peaceful outcome.
Not surprisingly, the odds for a draw in mixed martial arts are very high. Usually they are in the region of 50.0, which means, a bet of 1000 rubles, if successful, will bring 50 thousand. Sometimes they offer 60.0-70.0 for a draw.
The UFC format itself contributes to the minimum number of draws. The number of rounds is always odd: regular fights consist of three segments, title fights – of five. The number of judges is also odd. Therefore, even with a very close fight, a lot must coincide so that the arbitrators cannot single out one of the athletes.
In this regard, it is recommended to conclude such bets solely for the sake of entertainment, since in the vast majority of cases they will turn out to be a failure. According to statistics, about 2% of battles end in a draw.