Asymmetric outcomes strategy in sports betting

Published: 09-04-22
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    Sports betting is a great way to spend an evening in the pleasant company of like-minded people. Betting with a bookmaker was invented primarily as entertainment where winnings are nothing more than a nice bonus. However, times are changing, and sports betting became part of the successful gambling industry. Many people still see betting as a source of pleasure, while others choose to bet as their career plan.

    Experienced players unanimously declare that luck without a working strategy means an empty bank in a short time. If the bookie was easily beatable, the gambling entertainment business wouldn’t be as profitable. 

    There are many strategies for everyone. Some use a mathematical approach to calculate the probability of a particular outcome; some use an analytical approach to take a detailed look at previous events and draw up a plan of action. Others rely solely on modern inventions and programs that perform the routine work, providing the user with complete information.

    Betting companies, in turn, provide players with additional features, such as mobile applications, easy-to-use online casino sites, a profitable bonus programme for new players and active users, as well as live betting. In the face of intense competition, participating in the game is becoming more and more tempting.

    Of course, like other professions, successful sports betting requires a lot of effort. In order to understand the nuances of working with a bookmaker and reach a regular income, the bettor should stock up on time and patience. In most cases, winning strategies are designed for the long term. Single winning bets are an indicator of good preparation or luck. However, professionals resort to other tactics.

    What are bets with asymmetric outcomes?

    what-are-bets-with-asymmetric-outcomes

    A regular sports bet follows one of the three scenarios: it will be successful, it will fail, or it will be refunded to the player (if mentioned in the terms of the deal). An asymmetric outcome implies unequal amounts of money in case of a win or loss of the player. If the possible profit significantly exceeds the possible losses, it makes sense to take a risk with the right preparation.
    What is necessary for an asymmetric outcome? First of all, a high coefficient. A player who places bets with asymmetric outcomes won’t be satisfied even with a coefficient of 1.5 or 2. The minimum coefficient to be considered in this situation is 3 or higher. Thus, if the bettor makes a bet of 1000 roubles, the net profit will be 2000 roubles. In case of a loss, the bettor will lose the initial thousand.
    It’s not that simple, though: odds for sporting events are carefully analysed and set considering the probability of a result. With a coefficient of 3.0, the probability of the selected outcome is only 33%. It is for this reason that a bettor should learn how to look for value bets.

    What does sports betting value mean?

    The concept of value bets is based on events where the odds don’t correspond with reality for a variety of reasons. This may be an oversight or an incorrect assessment of the situation on the bookmaker’s analysts’ side or an artificial advantage that appeared due to many bets placed on one particular outcome.
    To calculate valuation, one must first know the true value of the bet. This can be accomplished by using the formula V*C>100, where V is the probability of the outcome, C is the coefficient set by the company. If the resulting number is over 100, such a bet deserves more careful consideration. Often, players resort to using special parser programs. Their main purpose is to monitor the offers and determine unusual odds. The bettor will only need to accurately evaluate the operation of the server and choose the most suitable option.
    This strategy is suitable for those who expect a long-term partnership with the bookmaker since significant profit is possible only in a long run.
    When using the strategy of asymmetric outcomes, it’s best to choose sports events with an imbalance or a skewed situation, when the coefficient proposed by the bookmaker is far from reality. This happens when one of the outcomes is loaded. When experienced players say ‘loads’, they mean a significant decrease in the coefficient as a direct result of the players’ bets. To divert the attention of bettors from the most likely outcome, bookmakers artificially lower the odds.
    Most often, such situations arise during betting on large-scale events, such as world championships, important tournaments, and international leagues. The lowering of odds is especially relevant when the probable winner is known even before the start of the event.
    Of course, there’s a risk of losing money, but the player has a chance to bet at an advantageous rate, which can differ greatly from the actual one.
    An example of such bets is football bets with a negative handicap on the probable winner. Many identical bets create a skew, and the odds for the weaker team to win change right before your eyes. The bettor shouldn’t waste their time and make a value bet with a positive handicap on an outsider.
    In hockey, the value betting scheme works when placing bets on the last match in a long away session. In this case, the games are held with short breaks on foreign territory, which negatively affects the emotional and physical state of the players. This means that no matter how powerful the team is, the risk of defeat increases significantly.

    Accumulator bets in asymmetric outcomes

    accumulator-bets-in-asymmetric-outcomes

    For a better, a coefficient of 3 or more is a danger indication: the higher the odds, the more likely you are to lose. Express bets can be an excellent solution to ease worries. This tactic includes several separate sports events, the coefficients of which are multiplied. Thus, the odds are much higher than when placing individual bets. An important condition for a successful accumulator bet is the positive outcome of all individual bets in the accumulator bet. Therefore, the selection of the event should be approached with all seriousness and shouldn’t be based on profitable odds and predictions of critics. The fewer bets included in the accumulator bet, the greater the chance of winning. It’s best if the individual bets in different accumulator bets are not repeated, as even one mistake will result in the loss of several long-term bets at once.

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    Kristaps Gauja kristapsgauja

    Kristaps is an expert in the field of online casinos. Over time he has found himself as a gambling critic and analyst.

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