Information on the most important sporting events is now freely available: anyone can view the line-ups of the participating teams, the results of their past performances and their level of motivation for the upcoming game.
Statistics in big sports are not only of interest to fans and observers. Bookmaker’s offices successfully operate on the basis of this data, attracting more and more customers with a wide range of games and favourable conditions. In order to calculate the true odds, the analyst needs as much verified and up-to-date information as possible. Quite often the big bookmakers have their own sources of insider information, which are carefully hidden from view.
Professional betting in any sport requires the bettor to be aware of what is happening on the field in real time. If you get the material from which you have calculated your betting probability too late or not in full, the chances of winning a bet dwindle before your eyes.
That’s why the basic rule for successful betting is to constantly monitor the news in the area of interest and play according to your chosen strategy. Experienced gamblers say that a well thought-out tactic is a serious advantage for the bettor over the bookmaker.
From the outside, mathematical formulas and big sports seem to be incompatible. However, it is the calculation of important indicators that is used to evaluate the productivity and performance of each athlete or the whole team.
Each sport has its own quality assessments that show an objective picture of performance. In most cases, such parameters are used over a large time period (months and even years). There are also those with which you can comprehensively evaluate one match, period or set.
Hockey, it is a team game, is based on a huge number of numbers and calculations. Here, statistics are more important than ever: the performance ratings of teams and individual players are compiled. The resulting metrics affect the likelihood of obtaining a profitable contract, so players often artificially increase their individual performance even to the detriment of the current game.
Here are some of the most useful formulas that, when used correctly, can help you make a good estimate of the probability of a sporting event.
- Shot conversion percentage
R%= number of successful shots/number of total shots on goal*100
This indicator shows the level of performance of a player or club. Simply put, the higher the percentage of sales, the more successful the game was played by the sportsmen.
The most objective indicator that reflects the style of play and the value of each player. The metric is recognized as international and is used in the preparation of hockey ratings. It is usually calculated for both opposing teams and includes 3 components:
- total number of shots on goal;
- the number of unsuccessful throws;
- number of blocked pucks.
Corsi= CF/(CF+CA)*100%, where CF is the attacking indicators of the sportsman or club of interest, SA are the defense figures of the selected participants in the event.
When Corsi is higher than 50%, an attacking style of play is called. The main characteristics of the tactic are: a high number of shots, the ability to intercept the puck and take the initiative, and a high percentage of successful shots.
If Corsi is less than 50%, the team or player is better off defensively: the game is unaggressive, even passive and low-scoring in places.
The percentage often indicates the potential of the participating team: Corsi below 50% is found in players with a low rating without any special achievements. At the same time, 50% and above are a sure sign of a strong and stable game.
The indicator will be more objective if used in combination with other statistics over a long distance. For example, with the simultaneous analysis of the main composition of the team and motivation for the upcoming match, the picture becomes more complete.
For a better analysis, the Corsi-For indicators are calculated (throws of a team or a hockey player are counted without taking into account the opponent’s data) and Corsi-Against (throws made by an opponent at the goal of a certain team when the athlete of interest was on the ice). Then the Corsi calculation formula looks different:
This version of the formula is convenient for determining the value of the player of interest.
The Corsi indicator is not a constant value, but has a fairly large difference even over a short time period. After all, hockey is a team game, and no one has canceled the human factor. A long absence from the field of one of the leading participants, internal conflicts and a losing streak can reduce the metric of even the most outstanding hockey team. That is why not all players use it in their practice.
- Majority realised by opponents
Sports betting, like bookmakers, offers customers not only bets on possible main outcomes and the number of pucks in the opponent’s goal, but also special bets: a minority game, individual player points, the number of small fines.
Each player chooses the most appropriate option in each individual case. Beginners prefer to bet on obvious outcomes: the odds are not very high, but the probability of a bet passing is higher. Experienced bettors adhere to the strategy of value bets, preferring to make all the calculations on their own.
B= number of shorthanded goals/power play games conceded*100
- Minority neutralization percentage
The formula for calculating minority neutralization is used quite often in special bets and looks like this:
N= 100-majority realized by rivals, %
Such calculations are carried out in almost all sports. For individual performances they are of particular importance, as it often influences an athlete’s place in the overall rankings.
The xG indicator is particularly important in football. It indicates the number of dangerous chances created by the team. The success of the situation is irrelevant: absolutely all shots at the opponent’s goal count.
It is also useful for determining the club’s style of play: the higher it is, the more aggressive the team’s tactics are. This means that it is important to evaluate the attacking line-up for the upcoming game before betting.
xG is usually used to determine the level of play in a single match and does not give accurate data over a long distance.
In basketball, the most popular metric is the NBA Performance Rating (PER). In Europe, analogues of PER are presented in the form of PIR (performance rating) and EF (efficiency). Professional analysts point to the high objectivity of the data obtained, but it is better to use it in combination with other metrics.