Everyone who participates in betting strives to win and make a profit. Of course, no one intends to lose money on bets; everyone wants to multiply the invested capital. However, it is crucial to understand that it will not be possible to avoid the defeats completely: even professional players with extensive betting experience make mistakes. At the same time, losing a bet does not always mean that your approach to making predictions is wrong. In some cases, betting errors can even be extremely useful. And the purpose of this article is to understand why in more detail.
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The role of chance
In the betting world, it is impossible to rule out accidental events. They will impact the course of the match and your bets in one way or another. In your opinion, is it fair that the football team was able to score a goal in the last second of additional time and thereby snatched the victory? Or is it fair that the basketball team’s leading scorer was injured in the first minutes of the match, which caused his team to lose because they were not prepared to replace him? In the world of sports, there are many more similar situations that turn the course of the entire match around.
So should you consider your bet correct one in situations like this? Such accidents can either be beneficial for you or make you lose the bet. What should you do if an accident like this discredited your choice?
As we can see, luck and chance can both help you win even if your prediction was incorrect and make you lose with the right bet.
It is essential to understand that every sports discipline depends on the chance to a certain extent. This means that you should know that you will not avoid mistakes because it is impossible to make a 100% correct prediction.
Besides, luck can become a decisive factor not only in a single bet but in a whole series of them, and it is impossible to predict which one. However, experienced players always ask how much luck affects this particular bet and try to think it through to understand how right or wrong their betting strategy and thinking are. It is very dangerous to underestimate the factor of chance, and every player who takes bets seriously should pay attention to this aspect.
For example, say someone managed to predict the outcome of 9 out of 10 matches of the Spanish La Liga correctly and won a lot of money thanks to that – they are probably going to be satisfied with their skills. But it may well happen that they continue to bet on the Spanish championship with a more significant bet amount, but by the end of the season, end up with a negative balance.
Of course, admitting your mistakes is always hard, but it is necessary to do so if you want to continue to grow in a particular type of activity. When analysing errors, you should always keep in mind that it is impossible not to make wrong decisions at all, and if you manage to at least reduce the number of errors, then this is excellent. Having achieved such progress, you are guaranteed to be able to increase your profit.
Accepting your own mistakes
Someone who knows some kind of sport very well, for example, football, often believes that they will be able to make quick and easy money with this knowledge. And if, in reality, this does not turn out to be the case, it can cause great disappointment.
Remember that even a professional capper’s percentage of successful bets is around 55% at best, and it is considered a great result. The best players from around the world have a successful bet percentage of about 60%.
Thus, losing is nothing to stress about unless you lose more than 50% of the time. In that case, it is worth rethinking your strategy – this means that your approach is fundamentally wrong, and you need to adjust it.
The bettor must realise that mistakes are a part of betting. Otherwise, it will be impossible to progress and improve the skills. But you blame everyone around you for your defeats; for example, the teams that did not play well enough, you will not be able to break the series of losses in betting.
Solving the problem
The moment you realise that everyone can be wrong, you will need to investigate the reasons for these losses. Then you will be able to take measures to solve the problem. Sometimes, you lose because you forgot to take into account a minor detail, and sometimes it is because your approach was incorrect, and you will need to change it radically to win. It doesn’t matter what the reason is precisely; it’s essential to start making efforts to solve it.
It is worth testing out new approaches from time to time, they might help you succeed. At the same time, it is recommended to regularly check your calculations and conclusions based on which you made a particular bet. Moreover, the more bets you make, the easier it will be to understand the trends.
Study the mistakes to take a conscious risk
Mistakes can help you learn how to manage your budget. Of course, the ability to make accurate predictions is undoubtedly useful, but if you run out of funds for new bets, then the skill will become useless.
After the first big mistakes, you will realise that you need to save your money, and, as a result, you will start placing fixed bets that help avoid significant losses. They will be your key to success. Over time, when you see that your performance has drastically increased, you can gradually increase the bet amount. For example, you can use the Kelly criterion – based on that, you need to change the size of your bet proportionally.
The main thing is that because of this gradual development, you will develop a risk tolerance. You will understand that it is an integral part of your activity, and at the same time, it will not sabotage your growth. As a result, bets will be able to become your source of income.
Some players who have already made thousands of bets still cannot figure out whether they will be lucky or unlucky in the foreseeable future, that is, they cannot figure out how practical their approach is. If you have enough experience, you can use the Joseph Buchdahl method, which will allow you to evaluate the skills you invested in and the level of luck using a special formula.
Of course, this approach will not give you an unambiguous answer whether you are a skilled or an incompetent bettor. However, it will allow you to estimate your bets’ probability of receiving income. The accuracy of the approach will increase as you get more experienced.
Summing up, it can be noted that the most important thing is not to give up after the first mistakes but to try and understand their causes. You will not be able to eliminate the errors from your bets completely. Still, thanks to thoughtful analysis, you can significantly reduce their number, and, along with this, your income will gradually increase. Perhaps the reason for your failure was bad luck, or maybe you are using the wrong approach, which will lead to severe losses in the long run.
One more tip before you go: after betting, try to analyse what did you do, how you did it, what was your chain of thoughts before placing the bet, and what result it led to.