Subjectivism in betting: common mistakes

Published: 10-07-22
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    Subjectivism in betting is manifested by making decisions based on erroneous stereotypes or awkward prejudices. For example: “the win will certainly go to the favourite” or “the home team will win.” Professional betting involves the ability to carefully and comprehensively analyse the current situation without hasty and thoughtless conclusions. The sports sweepstakes were created for those who are constantly checking up on the events in the world of elite sports, do not miss essential competitions and know the physical state of the leaders and record-holders who enter competitions.

    The most vivid manifestations of subjectivism

    the-most-vivid-manifestations-of-subjectivism

    Many players are guided by emotional and opinion-dependent judgments that do not allow them to make an adequate assessment of their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses and to choose a promising option. Bettors place bets at bookmakers without prior analysis, which causes frequent losses and disappointment.

    Subjective decisions repeat; they have become universal for different types of sports:

    1. Betting on favourites.
    2. Betting on the home team’s success.
    3. Sports event importance underestimation.
    4. Bets against the team which received the red card.
    5. Patriotic stakes.

    Bookmaker analysts often use a subjective factor when setting a line. They underestimate the odds on favourites, as they clearly understand that there will be a lot of bets on them. For beginners, this becomes a starting point. Beginners’ reaction to a small coefficient could be compared to how the bull reacts to the red flag in the bullfighting. While every professional understands perfectly well that the office specialists can also make mistakes, their chances of assessment of opponents to win are not final and is subject to mandatory rechecking. Let’s have a look at the example. If the odds of 1.4 or 1.5 are set for the victory of a football team, you should not make hasty conclusions. An experienced bettor can independently assess opponents’ chances and even get some advantage over the bookmaker’s line – basically, higher odds.

    While setting the odds, bookmakers also often consider the home field factor. Many believe that if the team is supported by the fans, the game will undoubtedly be productive, especially when there are potentially equal opponents on the field. But the real situation is such that guests of approximately the same strength rarely lose. In many cases, the game ends with a draw or even with the victory of the visiting team. One of the championships in Italy became a classic example of such an outcome. On the same day, equal rivals met in two matches: Inter played with Milan and Fiorentina with Lazio. Bookmakers focused on the home field factor, clearly making the hosts their favourites. But the forecasts of the bookmaker’s specialists did not come true, both host clubs lost.

    Biased betting to avoid

    biased-betting-to-avoid

    Other common stereotypes lead to blunders, such as underestimating the importance of a sporting event. If a football club needs to do their best during an important European Cup match in the middle of the week, the players will certainly play at half strength on weekends in the national championship. This misconception leads to betting against the team.

    In April, the championship leader, Real Madrid, faced the club of the middle division at the home arena as part of the Spanish championship. A few days later, in the 1/8 finals of the Champions League, the best football club of the 20th century hosted Liverpool, which topped the standings of the British Championship. And a difficult fight with Barcelona in La Liga was planned straight away after the EuroCup. Many betters decided that Real Madrid would sacrifice the match with Eibar to save resources for the game with Liverpool and Barcelona. As a result of this, the outsider got a head start. But the coaches of the Madrid team set the players the task of scoring 3 points in the national championship. It was the only way Real Madrid could continue to fight for gold. The Royal Club won 3 times in a row. In this scenario, professionals advise betting on the first half of the first half. The leading club, most likely, will strive to win the first half and, after the break, will act depending on the score without giving their best.

    Bets against the team which received a red card are also not always successful. This stereotype is completely refuted by the 2022 African Cup of Nations tournament. In the 1/8 finals, the Cameroon national team hosted a team from Comoros, a small country with a population of 900,000 people. The professional goalkeepers of Comoros dropped out during the group stage. Defenders were guarding the gates. In addition to other problems, the guest team captain received a red card at the beginning of the match. Users immediately turned to the negative handicap of the tournament hosts. But Comoros won with a score of 2:1. The bookmakers made an excellent profit that day.

    Professionals strongly recommend avoiding betting on the national teams of your country and favourite teams. A surge of patriotism and emotional experiences does not allow us to assess its real possibilities at the moment adequately. Subconsciously, we do not take weaknesses into account and overestimate strengths. Of course, it is psychologically challenging to make a bet against your favourite team or athlete, even if you believe it is very promising.

    Prejudices that were proven wrong

    prejudices-that-were-proven-wrong

    Stereotypes and prejudices are practically synonyms. However, there is one fundamental difference between the two.

    Stereotypes are formed over a long time period among a large part of the population. These judgments are not always wrong. Even if we take into account the stereotypes described above. It does happen that favourites often come out victorious. But the frequency of winnings is such that it is not always possible to make money on bets in the long run. The home field really helps the team feel more confident and win. A club with a missing player has a higher chance of losing.

    Whereas prejudices deny the reality completely. Some bettors mistakenly believe that it is impossible to win with high odds, from 2.2 and higher. Although in fact, many bettors successfully place bets on such values. These are the so-called absurd ideas about life.

    One of the most common and most vital prejudices is the unfounded beginners’ belief that you can buy a forecast for fixed matches on specialised resources. Such confidence is very odd, to say the least. How do the owners of hundreds and thousands of resources know when and where the agreement will take place? But users believe that they are getting reliable information, making absurd bets and unsuccessfully trying to make a profit.

    Only people who know how to think and deal with the influx of emotions make money on bets. They are not subject to any stereotypes and prejudices. Even if the odds for one opponent are 1.3 and the other 6, you need to study all the nuances of the future game carefully and draw your own conclusions.

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    Kristaps Gauja kristapsgauja

    Kristaps is an expert in the field of online casinos. Over time he has found himself as a gambling critic and analyst.

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